On Tuesday, March 25th, a new Honan Strategy Group poll of likely Democratic primary voters in New York City indicates that Andrew Cuomo is commanding in the 2025 mayoral race, while incumbent Mayor Eric Adams faces overwhelming disapproval. The survey, conducted from March 18th to March 20th, analyzed voter preferences using the city’s ranked-choice voting system.
The ranked-choice voting simulation shows Cuomo winning the Democratic primary in the eighth round with 66% of the vote against Zohran Mamdani’s 34%. Cuomo secures a majority by the fifth round, further solidifying his frontrunner status. Other candidates, including Brad Lander, Scott Stringer, and Zellnor Myrie failed to gain sufficient support, while Adams was eliminated in the seventh round.
The poll highlights a critical issue for many candidates—their lack of engagement with Black and Latino communities. Cuomo holds a 40% share of Black voters and an overwhelming 64% of Latino voters. In contrast, Mamdani polls at just 2% among Black voters and 10% among Latinos, failing to gain support with these groups. Lander, Stringer, and Myrie get low support, with Lander receiving 2% among Black voters and 3% among Latinos, Stringer at 3% among Black voters and 1% among Latinos, and Myrie received no support from Black voters and 1% among latinos. Even Adams, who has historically relied on Black voter support, sees his number fall to 17% in this key demographic. His struggles with Latino voters are even more pronounced, receiving just 1% support.
Cuomo and Stringer lead the field in favorability, while Mamdani has seen an increase in positive ratings since February. However, many candidates, including Lander and Myrie, struggle with high levels of unfamiliarity among voters. Adams, in contrast, receives one of the highest unfavorable ratings, with 82% viewing him negatively.
When asked about important leadership qualities, voters ranked Cuomo as the highest in all tested categories. He scores particularly well on “getting New York City back on track” (42%) and “knowing how to keep the city safe” (44%). Mamdani performs second-best but remains far behind Cuomo.
The poll reveals significant challenges for Adams, with 80% of respondents stating they would never vote for his re-election. Additionally, only 10% would support him if he ran as an Independent, and just 7% would consider voting for him as a Republican.
The poll surveyed 909 likely Democratic primary voters through a text-to-web methodology, with a margin of error of ±3.24%. The sample reflects the city’s Democratic voting population, including racial, gender, and borough-based demographics.
With Cuomo maintaining a strong lead and Adams facing considerable opposition, the upcoming primary could reshape New York City’s political landscape.
