Honan Strategy Group’s recent Democratic Mayoral Primary Barometer Survey reveals key insights into the current state of the race for Mayor of New York City. Conducted in partnership with five New York City Chambers of Commerce, the survey, which included 823 interviews, provides a snapshot of Democratic voter sentiment ahead of the June 2025 primary election.
Former Governor Andrew Cuomo maintains a dominant lead with 45% of the vote, an increase of 4% from March’s poll. This uptick follows the withdrawal of Mayor Eric Adams from the race, a move that seems to have benefited Cuomo, as he appears to have gained much of Adams’ former support. In second place is Queens Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani, who has seen a 4% increase in support, now at 22%. The other candidates are trailing significantly, with each receiving less than 10% of the vote. Notably, 14% of respondents remain undecided.
In an exclusive interview with LittleAfrica News, pollster Bradley Honan explained that Cuomo was underpinned by significant support from Black and Latino voters. Honan revealed that Cuomo is now winning 62% of the Black vote and 68% of the Latino vote—voter groups that had previously leaned toward Adams. “Now that [Adams] is no longer in the race, they’ve transitioned over to Andrew Cuomo,” Honan said. The survey found that Adams’ broader political coalition—which included African American, Caribbean, Latino, Jewish, and white ethnic voters—has shifted decisively in Cuomo’s favor following Adams’ exit from the Democratic primary.
The survey also included a ranked-choice voting simulation, further strengthening Cuomo’s position. Despite the simulation’s academic nature, it confirmed that Cuomo would maintain a strong lead throughout the rounds. In fact, Cuomo would win outright in the first round of ranked choice voting, as he begins with 53% of the vote, exceeding the 50% threshold needed to win. After the seventh round, Cuomo secured 64% of the vote, leaving Mamdani with just 36%. Honan noted that Cuomo is so far ahead that “there is a scenario right now where Cuomo wins the ballgame before the first pitch is even thrown.” The simulation demonstrated Cuomo’s widespread appeal among voters and his significant advantage over his closest competitor.
The methodology behind the survey mirrored that of previous polls conducted by the Honan Strategy Group. Interviews were conducted using text-to-web methods, with the survey occurring between April 16th and 17th. The sampling frame reflected the demographic and geographic diversity of New York City’s Democratic electorate. The poll targeted likely Democratic primary voters, including those who registered after January 1, 2024, as part of a broader effort to capture the so-called “anti-Trump surge” voter segment.
Overall, the results underscore Cuomo’s continued strength in the race, with Mamdani emerging as a consistent challenger. However, with a sizable portion of voters still undecided, the dynamics of the race remain fluid as the election approaches.
