President Joe Biden holds a narrow lead over former President Donald Trump in a potential rematch in New York State, according to a recent survey.
A Siena College poll released Thursday revealed that Biden is ahead of Trump by 8 points among registered New York voters, with 47% to Trump’s 39%
A previous May poll indicated Biden led Trump by 9 points, with an April survey showing a 10-point lead for Biden.
Since May, Biden’s favorability rating has declined by 3 points, dropping from 45% to 42%, while his unfavorability rating increased from 50% to 53%.
Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg stated, “While Biden maintains the support of three-quarters of Democrats, Trump has support from 85% of Republicans and leads Biden 45-28% with independents.”
Trump’s appeal has significantly increased among black and Jewish voters in New York, with 29% of black and 26% of Latino residents favoring him over Biden in the upcoming November 5 election.
“We are going to win New York!” Trump, the likely Republican nominee, announced confidently during a rally in the South Bronx on May 23.
The survey result marks a notable increase from 2020, when, based on exit polls, Trump garnered only 6% of the black vote and 22% of the Hispanic vote.
In particular, Trump has closed the gap among Jewish voters, receiving 46% support in this group compared to Biden’s 52%. This shift follows Biden’s uncertain stance on the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza.
Trump’s performance in New York also surpasses that of other Republicans. According to the same Siena poll, the GOP trailed 15 percentage points behind Democrats in the generic congressional ballot.
The Trump campaign expressed optimism in response to the poll results.
Spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt said, “New Yorkers are waking up to the fact that Joe Biden and the Democrats are running their historic city into the ground.”
The last Republican to secure victory in New York was Ronald Reagan in 1984.
Despite losing New York by over 20 percentage points in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, Trump’s improved ratings among minority voters suggest a shifting political landscape in the state.
