The latest data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reveals a sharp rise in COVID-19 indicators across the western United States, marking a shift to “high” levels.
Despite this uptick, the CDC has yet to declare the onset of the anticipated summer surge in cases nationwide.
The CDC’s latest figures, current through June 27, show increased SARS-CoV-2 virus levels in sewage samples across most of the country.
While the national average remains “low,” the western region has surpassed the threshold for “high” levels.
Dr. William Schaffner, a Vanderbilt University School of Medicine professor, expressed his observation, stating, “Summer is back, and we are about to have the summer bump, that we call it, of COVID-19 cases. You know, we have a bump in the summer, and then it goes down in the fall, and goes up more substantially in the winter.”
The CDC remains cautious, noting that while there is a visible increase, it’s essential to view these figures against the backdrop of relatively low virus activity during April and May 2024.
“During April and May 2024, COVID-19 activity was lower than at any time since the start of the pandemic. Recent increases need to be considered from that baseline,” the agency reported on Friday, June 28th.
Historically, the pattern has shown that COVID-19 levels rise during the summer, following a drop in the spring, although the timing can vary. For instance, last year’s summer peak did not occur until late in the season.
Hawaii has reported some of the most concerning trends among western states, with wastewater levels exceeding last winter’s peak and emergency room visits for COVID-19 reaching their highest levels in over a year.
Despite these concerning trends, the CDC’s latest projections suggest that the virus’s spread may be starting to decline in Hawaii after continuous weeks of increases.
Meanwhile, on the eastern side of the country, attention is turning towards the rise of the LB.1 variant, believed to be a descendant of the JN.1 variant from last winter’s wave.
As of early June, the LB.1 variant accounted for nearly 31% of COVID-19 cases in areas including New York and New Jersey, contrasting sharply with less than 10% in western states.
While emergency room visits related to COVID-19 are increasing in New York and New Jersey, they remain below the peaks observed in previous high seasons.
Regarding wastewater trends, the Northeast continues to show minimal virus levels, keeping within the CDC’s lowest category for COVID-19 spread.
