A new poll conducted by Navigator Research between July 31 and August 8th reveals that Vice President Kamala Harris is not leading in any of the critical battleground states as she competes against former President Donald Trump for the presidency. The poll surveyed likely voters in five key states—Michigan, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Pennsylvania—and shows the race is extremely tight, with Harris and Trump either tied or Trump slightly ahead.
In Michigan, North Carolina, and Wisconsin, Harris and Trump are neck and neck, with each candidate receiving 44%, 46%, and 45% support, respectively, when third-party candidates are included. In contrast, Harris is trailing slightly in Arizona and Pennsylvania, where Trump leads by one point in Arizona (46% to 45%) and two points in Pennsylvania (46% to 44%).
The poll underscores the competitive nature of the 2024 election, particularly in states that were crucial to President Joe Biden’s victory in 2020. Biden won Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, while Trump secured North Carolina in the 2020 election. However, current polling data suggests that these states are now highly contested battlegrounds, with neither candidate having a clear lead.
The survey indicates that overall, across these battleground states, the race is tied at 45% when third-party candidates are considered, with 7% of voters opting for a third-party candidate and 3% remaining undecided. Harris shows stronger support among women, as well as Black and Hispanic voters, while Trump continues to have an edge among men and white voters. Among independent voters, Trump leads Harris by 5 points (43% to 38%), with a more significant advantage among independent men (50% to 31%) compared to a tie among independent women (39% to 39%).
The findings come at a critical time as Harris’s campaign seeks to consolidate support in these pivotal states. While she has led Trump in national polls since launching her campaign in July, her performance in the battleground states remains volatile. The poll suggests that Harris faces a challenging path ahead, needing to close the gap with Trump and improve her favorability among key voter groups, particularly independents, to secure a victory in November.
